The end is near. Another year is about to hike over the horizon and a new year will magically make its presence known. The years seem to slip by more quickly these days as we try to keep pace with the newest cell phone, computer or television. Technology has made things smaller, more efficient and quicker. We would die of boredom waiting for an old IBM 286 to boot up; all fifty pounds of it.
Despite all the changes in technology over the past couple of decades, the purchase and sale of real estate has remained pretty much the same. It is still a hands-on business. Ultimately, all the final decisions are made by humans, not computers.
The pace of a real estate market isn’t defined by the human element, though. Statistics rule here. How many homes have sold this week, this month, and this year? How does that compare with last year or the year before that? Are home values going up or down? How many homes are on the market for sale? All questions requiring statistical answers.
Here are some statistics (through November of each year) compliments of MetroList (the Denver Metro MLS). The year 2005 is used as a benchmark, since that has been the most active year for sales activity for the past six years throughout the Denver Metro and Northern Colorado real estate markets.
• Aurora North – Single Family: In 2005, there were 910 sales ($161,292 average sales value). For 2010, there were 839 sales ($113,893 average sales value). A reduction of approximately 8% in sales. In November/2005, there were 599 active listings; 311 active listings in November/2010. A reduction of approximately 48%.
• Aurora North – Attached Units: In 2005, there were 208 sales ($112,802 average sales value). For 2010, there were 170 sales ($70,752 average sales value). A reduction of approximately 18% in sales. In November/2005, there were 203 active listings; 54 active listings in November/2010. A reduction of approximately 73%.
• Aurora South – Single Family: In 2005, there were 3,812 sales ($229,765 average sales value). For 2010, there were 2,312 sales ($196,964 average sales value). A reduction of approximately 39% in sales. In November/2005, there were 1,535 active listings; 1,103 active listings in November/2010. A reduction of approximately 28%.
• Aurora South – Attached Units: In 2005, there were 1,638 sales ($135,857 average sales value). For 2010, there were 1,140 sales ($95,747 average sales value). A reduction of approximately 30% in sales. In November/2005, there were 1,262 active listings; 520 active listings in November/2010. A reduction of approximately 59%.
What do the numbers above tell us?
1. Sales are down noticeably from 2005. They have trended down every year since 2005 for the Aurora market area.
2. The number of active listings has dropped off significantly since 2005. Sellers have decided to (a) stay where they are and not move; (b) wait for the market to improve and then move; or (c) rented their home and moved.
3. Real estate market values have not improved since 2005. The upper end of the market has experienced the greatest negative impact from the economy. The lower end of the market has been able to sustain itself.
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